Modeling Impact of Temperature and Human Movement on the Persistence of Dengue Disease

Dengue is a vector-borne infectious disease endemic in many parts of the world. The disease is spreading in new places due to human movement into the dengue disease supporting areas. Temperature is the major climatic factor which affects the biological processes of the mosquitoes and their interaction with the viruses. In the present work, we propose a multipatch model to assess the impact of temperature and human movement in the transmission dynamics of dengue disease. The work consists of system of ordinary differential equations that describe the transmission dynamics of dengue disease between humans and mosquitoes. Human population is divided into four classes: susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered. Mosquito population is divided into three classes: susceptible, exposed, and infectious. Basic reproduction number R0 of the model is obtained using Next-Generation Matrix method. The qualitative analysis of the model is made in terms of the basic reproduction number. Parameters used in the model are considered temperature dependent. Dynamics of vector and host populations are investigated with different human movement rates and different temperature levels. Numerical results show that proper management of human movement between patches helps reducing the burden of dengue disease. It is also seen that the temperature affects the transmission dynamics of the disease significantly

Gene expression profiles among murine strains segregate with distinct differences in the progression of radiation-induced lung disease.

Molecular mechanisms underlying development of acute pneumonitis and/or late fibrosis following thoracic irradiation remain poorly understood. Here, we hypothesize that heterogeneity in disease progression and phenotypic expression of radiation-induced lung disease (RILD) across murine strains presents an opportunity to better elucidate mechanisms driving tissue response toward pneumonitis and/or fibrosis. Distinct differences in disease progression were observed in age- and sex-matched CBA/J, C57L/J and C57BL/6J mice over 1 year after graded doses of whole-thorax lung irradiation (WTLI). Separately, comparison of gene expression profiles in lung tissue 24 h post-exposure demonstrated \u3e5000 genes to be differentially expressed (P\u3c0.01; \u3etwofold change) between strains with early versus late onset of disease. An immediate divergence in early tissue response between radiation-sensitive and -resistant strains was observed. In pneumonitis-prone C57L/J mice, differentially expressed genes were enriched in proinflammatory pathways, whereas in fibrosis-prone C57BL/6J mice, genes were enriched in pathways involved in purine and pyrimidine synthesis, DNA replication and cell division. At 24 h post-WTLI, different patterns of cellular damage were observed at the ultrastructural level among strains but microscopic damage was not yet evident under light microscopy. These data point toward a fundamental difference in patterns of early pulmonary tissue response to WTLI, consistent with the macroscopic expression of injury manifesting weeks to months after exposure. Understanding the mechanisms underlying development of RILD might lead to more rational selection of therapeutic interventions to mitigate healthy tissue damage

PANC Study (Pancreatitis: A National Cohort Study): national cohort study examining the first 30 days from presentation of acute pancreatitis in the UK

Abstract Background Acute pancreatitis is a common, yet complex, emergency surgical presentation. Multiple guidelines exist and management can vary significantly. The aim of this first UK, multicentre, prospective cohort study was to assess the variation in management of acute pancreatitis to guide resource planning and optimize treatment. Methods All patients aged greater than or equal to 18 years presenting with acute pancreatitis, as per the Atlanta criteria, from March to April 2021 were eligible for inclusion and followed up for 30 days. Anonymized data were uploaded to a secure electronic database in line with local governance approvals. Results A total of 113 hospitals contributed data on 2580 patients, with an equal sex distribution and a mean age of 57 years. The aetiology was gallstones in 50.6 per cent, with idiopathic the next most common (22.4 per cent). In addition to the 7.6 per cent with a diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis, 20.1 per cent of patients had a previous episode of acute pancreatitis. One in 20 patients were classed as having severe pancreatitis, as per the Atlanta criteria. The overall mortality rate was 2.3 per cent at 30 days, but rose to one in three in the severe group. Predictors of death included male sex, increased age, and frailty; previous acute pancreatitis and gallstones as aetiologies were protective. Smoking status and body mass index did not affect death. Conclusion Most patients presenting with acute pancreatitis have a mild, self-limiting disease. Rates of patients with idiopathic pancreatitis are high. Recurrent attacks of pancreatitis are common, but are likely to have reduced risk of death on subsequent admissions. </jats:sec

Exploring the influence of the curriculum on student learning in culturally and ethnically diverse classroom contexts: Praxis, paradoxes and perspectives of stakeholders

This paper explores the perceptions and lived experiences of Nepalese educators and stakeholders in relation to the school curriculum and its influence upon student learning in a culturally and ethnically diverse classroom context. The study adopted a qualitative research design using face-to-face semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions to gather the perceptions of students, teachers, school principals and curriculum experts from three different schools representing distinct and diverse Nepalese settings. The findings identified that there are six main factors that affect curriculum delivery in Nepal: a centralised education system; social, economic and cultural diversity; political instability; curriculum content; the involvement of curriculum development stakeholders; and teachers’ content and pedagogical knowledge and related attributes. These six factors all contribute to a significant influence on student learning. Keywords Curriculum; student learning; perspectives; cultural diversity; Nepa

Analysis of dengue infection transmission dynamics in Nepal using fractional order mathematical modeling

Dengue is a significant factor to the global public health issue, including Nepal. In Nepal from 2004−2022, the largest outbreak occurred in the year 2022. Dengue infection cases appeared all over 77 districts of Nepal. The Caputo fractional order SEIR-SEI epidemic model is able to describe dengue disease transmission dynamics of present situation. For fundamental mathematical guarantees of epidemic model equations, we studied the Lipschitz and Banach contraction theorems to show that the model equations have a unique solution. The Ulam-Hyres stability is established in the model. Next generation matrix approach is used to calculate the associated basic reproduction number R0. The model equilibrium points are identified, and the local asymptotic stability for disease-free equilibrium point is analyzed. Normalized forward and partial rank correlation coefficient are used for sensitivity study to identify the factors that affect dengue infection with respect to basic reproduction number. Using real data of Nepal, the model is fitted and the least square method is used for estimating parameters. Numerical scheme has been illustrated using a two-step Lagrange interpolation approach and the solution is approximated. With numerical results and sensitivity analysis, it is concluded that biting rate and death rate of mosquito are extremely sensitive to the disease transmission. The transmission increases with increasing biting rate and decreases with decreasing mosquito death rate. For the year 2022, R0=1.7739>1 showing that the disease is endemic. Thus, effective control measure should be implemented to combat the dengue virus. However, further research needs to be undertaken to assess the impact of such control measures

Vaccination effect on the dynamics of dengue disease transmission models in Nepal: A fractional derivative approach

Dengue is a vector-borne disease which is spreading rapidly around the world. It is one of the fastly growing public health problems in Nepal. Since 2004, dengue cases have been recorded in both tropical and subtropical regions of Nepal. There is no specific treatment for the dengue disease, which is brought on by the dengue virus. This study attempts the use of the Caputo fractional-order derivative to suggest SVEIRP-SEI epidemic model that integrates vaccination and hospitalization in order to precisely analyze the transmission of dengue infection phenomena. The existence and uniqueness are discussed for the model solutions. Basic reproduction number R0with vaccination is formulated using next generation matrix. Both the local and global stability of disease free and endemic equilibrium points are explored. The parameters are estimated from the actual outbreak of infected cases in Nepal. Sensitivity analysis is then presented graphically with appropriate memory index ψ. The findings of the mathematical and simulation results demonstrate that vaccination is one of the effective strategies that lowers the prevalence of the disease significantly